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Development of Emerging Economies

BFA Development of Emerging Economies Annual Report 2015

Time:2015-03-24 22:18:59    Views:3305356    Origin:Boao Forum for Asia

BFA Development of Emerging Economies Annual Report 2015

On March 17,2015, Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Emerging Economies Development Report 2015 was released in Beijing at a press conference held by the BFA secretariat at the China World Summit Wing in Beijing.

In 2010,BFA began releasing the annual report on emerging economies development and for the first time presented the concept of E11 (11 emerging  countries), the 11 emerging economies in G20, namely Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey.

E11’s economic growth slows down, but their general operation remains smooth.

The report points out that facing the complicated situations at home and abroad, E11 had smooth general economic operation in 2014 under the new normal. Meanwhile, their economy showed structural slowdown. IMF data indicate that in 2014, E11’s economic growth rate was 4.9% based on the constant GDP weighted, down by 0.3% over 2013. The economic growth slowdown experienced by emerging economies, including E11, is due to many reasons. The major reason is the periodic changes in some important factors that support the growth. Facing adjustment are several cycles, including the credit cycle featured by the relatively low interest rate, the bulk commodity prosperity cycle featured by the relatively high price, the reform cycle featured by the release of economic potentials, and the global open-up cycle featured by multilateralism.

The economic gap between E11 and the developed economies shrinks by day.

The report points out that although E11 suffer from continual general economic growth slowdown, they play an increasingly important role in the world economy. In 2014, E11’s economic growth speed was 3.1% higher than that of the developed economies and 0.5% higher than the general figure of the emerging markets and developing economies. The economic scale gap between E11 and the developed economies is also shrinking with each passing day. With the nonstop progress in industrialization, urbanization, and structural transformation and upgrading and the nonstop deepening of reform, E11 will enjoy greater and greater domestic demand growth and accordingly better and better element supply, hence the creation of more positive factors powering the growth. In addition, the deeper and deeper economic cooperation among E11 will also become the lasting power propelling the development of the emerging economies.

E11’s foreign economic cooperation shows many new merits.

The report points out that E11 are playing an increasingly important role in building an open world economy, implementing IMF reform plan, and promoting the solution of global development problems. In 2014, E11 continued focusing on building a larger integrated market, achieving larger financial circulation, realizing infrastructure interconnectivity, and implementing greater cultural exchange. They have made many positive results. The BRICS Development Bank aims to raise fund for the infrastructure construction and sustainable development projects of BRIC countries and other emerging markets and developing countries. Its initial contingency reserve of 100 billion USD is meant to help the member nations cope with short-term fluidity pressure. The construction of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, Silk Road Economic Belt, and Asian-Pacific Free Trade Zone has made major progress. E11 have their own advantages in trade investment, industry, energy, grain, financial cooperation, and infrastructure construction and they are highly complementary to each other. Their cooperation with the developed economies also has new merits.

In 2015,E11’s economic growth won’t show large-margin decline.

The report points out that against the background of the world economy under profound adjustment and differentiation, E11’s economic development will face a more complicated and changeable environment. Under both internal challenges and external pressure, their economic recovery still lacks driving force. In 2015, factors such as the spillover effect of the currency policies of the developed economies, economic developments of major developed economies, geopolitical and economic evolution and unexpected events, progress in international economic and trade negotiation and cooperation, and results of the new round of reform by E11 will have significant impact on their economic growth prospect. In 2015, E11 are under a relatively great pressure to reverse their declining economy, but will still make a relatively satisfactory performance in this regard. The report predicts that in 2015, the possibility is rather small for E11 to enjoy a large-margin economic recovery, but neither will they suffer a large-margin decline. Compared with 2014, they are more likely to experience a same-level economic growth or a small decline, which means a growth rate of 4.8% calculated according to the total PPP weighted of all E11 economies.

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